Your Coffee Is a Scam (And I Can Prove It)

ArthurTalks — Post #1 7 minute read

Right welcome everyone to my blog, here is the first of many to come. To start this in a way those that have known me at work know i love a coffee, at least 1 after lunch. Used to love Blank Street now I only go to Rosslyn, an 'independent' place. It does sound crazy to spend £4.5 ish for a coffee, its just ice, a bit of milk and an espresso shot.. how is that £4.5/ $7 SGD. But lets talk the numbers and discuss what we can do about this... is it over rated?

The Setup

I have an espresso machine at home, some Sage touchscreen and makes a cool noise one. New, it retails for about £2,000. I got mine refurbished for £700. This is important context because the first thing people say when you tell them to make coffee at home is "yeah but I'm not spending two grand on a machine." You don't have to, some De Longhi is a couple hundred and pretty much does everything.

The London Coffee Landscape (A Quick Tour of Your Wallet)

Let's talk about what you're actually paying out there right now. If you're buying coffee in central London, the average sits around £4 a cup. But it varies, and the variance tells a story:

Blank Street — A large iced coffee is about £4.10. Feels cheap, right? That's because it kind of is. They can afford to undercut everyone because they've raised over $100 million in venture capital and are valued at roughly $500 million. They use automated espresso machines, centralise their cold brew production, and run tiny shops with minimal staff, its basically just a bunch of uni students. Its just VC subsidised latte The prices are artificially low because investors are betting on growth, not because the economics make sense, but it does lowkey taste so good.

Your average independent — About £4.50 for a hot latte or iced latte. This is the real price of coffee in London. This is what it actually costs when you factor in rent, staff, decent beans, and the owner wanting to not go bankrupt. These are the places that are actually making your coffee properly, sourcing good beans, and paying a barista who knows what they're doing.

The high end (Rosslyn, etc.) — About £5.10 and up. You're paying for exceptional beans, precise extraction, and an experience. Honestly? These places are usually worth it. But that's a conversation for another day. Like on a real i have no idea whats a Colombia breed vs an Ethiopian one, nor what fruity or nutty mean. I just think does it taste nice or not lol

Now Let's Do The Maths

Heres where it gets uncomfortable... lets run the numbers.

What a bag of beans actually costs

A 250g bag of good specialty coffee — the kind your favourite independent uses — costs about £12. Some are cheaper (Waitrose No1. Sumatra beans for 227g costs about £4.75). But £12 for 250g is a solid middle ground for quality beans.

How far does that bag go?

A standard double espresso uses about 18g of coffee. That's what goes into your flat white, your latte, your iced coffee — it all starts with a double shot.

250g ÷ 18g = roughly 13-14 drinks per bag.

Let's call it 13 to account for dialling in and a bit of waste (you always lose a gram or two in the grinder).

The home coffee cost per cup

• Beans: £12 ÷ 13 = £0.92 per drink
• Milk: A 2-pint bottle (1.136L) costs about £1.60. A flat white uses roughly 150-200ml of milk, so you get about 6 drinks per bottle. That's £0.27 per drink.
• Total per coffee: about £1.19

Round it up to £1.20 to keep things clean.

So what are you actually saving?

	Per Coffee	Per Week (1/day, 5 days)	Per Year
Home brew	£1.20	£6.00	£312
Blank Street	£4.10	£20.50	£1,066
Independent	£4.50	£22.50	£1,170
High end	£5.10	£25.50	£1,326

The saving vs an independent: £858 a year. That's a holiday. That's a very nice dinner for two every month. That's almost the cost of the refurbished machine itself — meaning the machine pays for itself in under a year.

Even vs Blank Street (the cheapest option), you're saving £754 a year.

"But Arthur, What About The Machine?"

Right. Let's factor in the full setup cost, because I'm being honest here:

• Machine (refurbished): £700
• Grinder (you need a decent one): Let's say £150-250 for something like a Sage Smart Grinder or a hand grinder
• Accessories (tamper, scale, milk jug): Maybe £50

Total upfront: roughly £900-1,000.

At an £858/year saving vs independents, you break even in just over a year. After that, it's pure profit. And the machine lasts years.

The Bit Where I'm Honest

Here's the thing though. I still buy coffee out. Regularly. And I don't feel bad about it. Here's why:

You're not just paying for coffee. You're paying for:

• Not having to clean a portafilter at 7:30am, basically you just take it out and scrape out this brown hot almost fertilizer thing.
• Someone else steaming your milk to that perfect microfoam you can't quite nail consistently, and then pouring a nice heart logo on top.
• A reason to leave the flat / office, where bsaically i just want to get out and also come back not empty headed
• The ritual of walking somewhere and being handed a nice thing, basically pretend to be nonchalant when someone pronounces my name wrong
• Iced coffee that you cannot be bothered to make at home (the ice situation alone is a whole thing), as in i have ice in many different shapes but it just tastes better with ice. i could write a whole article about why ice makes things taste better.

he scam isn't that coffee shops exist — it's that most people don't realise how massive the markup is, like as i said its literlaly throwing some brown liquid on white liquid, crazy thing is i dont even like coffee! i hate espresso, i just think it taste bad but oddly like super milky ice coffee, and i only like it iced. therefore i feel like its better than getting one from inside the office even though its 'free', i just like iced ones.

My Actual Take

Make your morning coffee at home maybe, oddly i prefer this strong sugar sachet from coffee i get back home, its called White Coffee, like Old Town White Coffee its that Ipoh style one.

But afternoon coffee in the office? i decide its time to treat myself for being in the office. i go to this independent looking one near my office and try and drag a mate from the office along. I kind of actually enjoy it? Keep buying that one. Feel like I've earned it, only 4 more hours to go..

The maths says make it at home. Reality says nah. Its not worth it at all. But in retrospect most things are not. Life's short to worry about a couple quid. Back home i can buy coffee for $1.50, the best and strongest one but i guess in some way need to fund the VC and landlord comp out there.

I am basically convenience is worth that possibly £3 odd quid extra - time is money, and money matters, does yours?

Welcome to ArthurTalks.

Nothing else from me, cheers all

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Got thoughts? Tell me I'm wrong. You won't be the first.